Utilizing a Thermal Time Model to Estimate Safe Times to Transplant Tilia Trees

City trees planted in parks and along streets are typically grown to large size in nurseries before being transplanted to their final growing sites. According to tendering rules within the European Union (EU), any business may compete for public contracts in any EU country, and this applies to purchases of valuable lots of nursery trees. There is however a risk of poor transplanting success if the trees are imported from very distant locations with a different pace of spring development. The aim of this study was to implement a Thermal Time model to predict the spring development of Tilia trees to find out in which geographical area the spring development is sufficiently similar to conditions in southern Finland, so that the success of transplantation of the trees is not unduly risked. We used phenological observations collected at the International Phenological Gardens (IPGs) over the whole of Europe, together with ERA-Interim weather data to estimate the model parameters, and then used the same date to predict the onset of leaf unfolding ofTilia during the years 1980 to 2015. Producing maps of phenological development of Tilia, we concluded that there are no large risks of frost damage if tree import area is limited to northern parts of Baltics or to the west coast of Scandinavia.