Number and height of unbrowsed saplings are more appropriate than the proportion of browsed saplings for predicting silvicultural regeneration success

• Key message The browsing level of oak (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur) and fir (Abies alba) provided only a rough estimate of the expected regeneration success. Thus, it cannot be recommended as a standard measurement to predict forest development, unless the number of saplings and the height of those saplings are considered. • Context Browsing by large herbivores may affect regeneration success and forest development, with an impact that lasts for decades. • Aims Whether the browsing level of a tree species can be used in forestry as a standard measure to assess whether the target values (for instance regeneration success) of highly selected tree species, such as oak ( Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Quercus robur ( L. )) and fir ( Abies alba (Mill. )), will be reached is unclear and need specification. • Methods In this study, 985 sampling plots (10 m 2 ) in Southern Germany (Baden-Württemberg) containing browsed and unbrowsed oak and fir-saplings were analysed. Both the browsing level and a measure of the expected regeneration success that considered not only the sapling density but also different height classes (≤ 20 cm; 21–50 cm; 51–130 cm) were calculated. • Results The use of the browsing level as a proxy for the expected regeneration success was statistically only partly justified. For fir the relationship between browsing level and expected regeneration success became even weaker for a new indicator variable which considers two height classes rather than one class for saplings exceeding 50 cm (51–80 cm and 81–130 cm). • Conclusion According to these results, the browsing level cannot be recommended as a standard measurement and/or predictor of damage, unless the number of saplings and the height of those saplings are considered. Thus, in efforts to mitigate conflicts between foresters and hunters, a measurement is needed that addresses the successful establishment of a sufficient number of trees despite browsing, rather than the browsing of trees alone.