The heat is on: Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod and climate-ready fisheries

Rapidly changing ocean conditions pose substantial challenges for coastal communities, fishermen, and managers. From 2014 to 2016, the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) experienced a marine heatwave and corollary decline in Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Here, we explore the 2020 closure of the directed Pacific cod federal fishery in the GOA as a case study of the needs and opportunities for managing fisheries in the context of environmental change. We build on climate-ready fishery research and conversations with experienced commercial fishermen, including Alutiiq fishers, and fishery managers to: (i) discuss ecosystem-based management in Alaska, (ii) explore early warning signs and management challenges preceding the decline of Pacific cod, (iii) recommend tools to enhance adaptive capacity in fishery management. We conclude that a strong foundation of science-based management that incorporates ecosystem information and multiple ways of knowing, increased monitoring and evaluation of indicators, and new tools for managers to respond and adapt will be essential to sustainable fishery management. New mechanisms highlighted in this essay include: a GOA Fishery Ecosystem Plan, climate risk and vulnerability analyses, habitat protections, and the development of original metrics, such as food web production or function targets to inform stock assessments and fishery management.