Predicting incident dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older women with nonparametric analysis of circadian activity rhythms in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures

Study Objectives: Disrupted daily rhythms are associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The specific nature of how rhythms and cognition are related, however, is unknown. We hypothesized characteristics from a nonparametric estimate of circadian rest-activity rhythm patterns would be associated to the development of MCI or dementia. Methods: Wrist actigraphy from 1232 cognitively healthy, community-dwelling women (mean age 82.6 years) from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures was used to estimate rest-activity patterns, including intradaily variability (IV), interdaily stability (IS), most active 10-hour period (M10), least active 5-hour period (L5), and relative amplitude (RA). Logistic regression examined associations of these predictors with 5-year incidence of MCI or dementia. Models were adjusted for potential confounders. Results: Women with earlier sleep/wake times had higher risk of dementia, but not MCI, (early vs. average L5 midpoint: OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.08-2.55) as did women with smaller day/night activity differentials (low vs. high RA: OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.14-3.35). IV, IS, and M10 were not associated with MCI or dementia. Conclusion: The timing and difference in day/night amplitude, but not variability of activity, may be useful as predictors of dementia.