Identification of an optimal prolactin threshold to determine prolactinoma size using receiver operating characteristic analysis

Prolactinomas represent the most common type of secretory pituitary neoplasms, with a therapeutic management that varies considerably based on tumour size and degree of hyperprolactinemia. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between serum prolactin (PRL) concentrations and prolactinoma size, and to determine a cut-off PRL value that could differentiate micro- from macro-prolactinomas. A retrospective cohort study of 114 patients diagnosed with prolactinomas between 2007 and 2017 was conducted. All patients underwent gadolinium enhanced pituitary MRI and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed. 51.8% of patients in this study were men, with a mean age at the time of diagnosis of 42.32 ± 15.04 years. 48.2% of the total cohort were found to have microadenomas. Baseline serum PRL concentrations were strongly correlated to tumour dimension (r = 0.750, p = 0.001). When performing the ROC curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.976, indicating an excellent accuracy of the diagnostic method. For a value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L), sensitivity and specificity were calculated at 0.932 and 0.891, respectively. When a cut off value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L) was used, specificity was 93.2%, and sensitivity 89.1%, acceptable to reliably differentiate between micro- and macro- adenomas.