Effects of Chinese medical pricing reform on the structure of hospital revenue and healthcare expenditure in county hospital: an interrupted time series analysis

Background China has initiated a medical pricing reform to combat the overuse of drugs and relieve the financial burden of patients. This paper aims to analyze the effect of medical pricing reform on revenue structure and healthcare expenditure of county public hospitals in Guangdong province. Methods Based on the monthly data from January 2013 to August 2019, we use interrupted time series design to evaluate the effects of medical pricing reform on healthcare expenditure in both outpatients and inpatients. A counterfactual is also established to examine the net effect of the policy. Results The proportion of drug revenue decreased from 35 % to 2015 to 29.7 % in 2019, and the revenue from medical services and inspection increased 3.2 and 3 % respectively. Meanwhile, the increasing trend of total expenditure and its main components is slowed down, especially the drug expense and medical consumable expense for inpatients after the Zero Mark-up Drug policy (coefficient = -18.76, p < 0.01; coefficient = -13.41, p < 0.01, respectively). However, the growth of inspection expense for outpatients continues to increase, while the healthcare expenditure for inpatients experiences an instant increase after the Zero Mark-up Medical Consumables policy. In terms of the net effect, most of healthcare expenditure in both outpatient and inpatient experienced a negative net growth from 2015 to 2019. Conclusions The medical pricing reform is a valuable attempt in controlling the unreasonable increase of medical expenses. In the meantime, the unexpected increase in inspection expenditure and insufficient compensation from medical service adjustment should draw the attention of the policymakers.