Positive Predictive Value Of Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Autoantibody Testing

This diagnostic study seeks to determine the positive predictive value of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-IgG1 testing in patients in a single tertiary referral center.IMPORTANCE Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-IgG1-associated disorder (MOGAD) is a distinct central nervous system-demyelinating disease. Positive results on MOG-IgG1 testing by live cell-based assays can confirm a MOGAD diagnosis, but false-positive results may occur.OBJECTIVE To determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of MOG-IgG1 testing in a tertiary referral center.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This diagnostic study was conducted over 2 years, from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2019. Patients in the Mayo Clinic who were consecutively tested for MOG-IgG1 by live cell-based flow cytometry during their diagnostic workup were included. Patients without research authorization were excluded.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Medical records of patients who were tested were initially reviewed by 2 investigators blinded to MOG-IgG1 serostatus, and pretest probability was classified as high or low (suggestive of MOGAD or not). Testing of MOG-IgG1 used a live-cell fluorescence-activated cell-sorting assay; an IgG binding index value of 2.5 or more with an end titer of 1:20 or more was considered positive. Cases positive for MOG-IgG1 were independently designated by 2 neurologists as true-positive or false-positive results at last follow-up, based on current international recommendations on diagnosis or identification of alternative diagnoses; consensus was reached for cases in which disagreement existed.RESULTS A total of 1617 patients were tested, and 357 were excluded. Among 1260 included patients tested over 2 years, the median (range) age at testing was 46 (0-98) years, and 792 patients were female (62.9%). A total of 92 of 1260 (7.3%) were positive for MOG-IgG1. Twenty-six results (28%) were designated as false positive by the 2 raters, with an overall agreement on 91 of 92 cases (99%) for true and false positivity. Alternative diagnoses included multiple sclerosis (n = 11), infarction (n = 3), B-12 deficiency (n = 2), neoplasia (n = 2), genetically confirmed adrenomyeloneuropathy (n = 1), and other conditions (n = 7). The overall PPV (number of true-positive results/total positive results) was 72% (95% CI, 62%-80%) and titer dependent (PPVs: 1:1000, 100%; 1:100, 82%; 1:20-40, 51%). The median titer was higher with true-positive results (1:100 [range, 1:20-1:10000]) than false-positive results (1:40 [range, 1:20-1:100]; P < .001). The PPV was higher for children (94% [95% CI, 72%-99%]) vs adults (67% [95% CI, 56%-77%]) and patients with high pretest probability (85% [95% CI, 76%-92%]) vs low pretest probability (12% [95% CI, 3%-34%]). The specificity of MOG-IgG1 testing was 97.8%.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study confirms MOG-IgG1 as a highly specific biomarker for MOGAD, but when using a cutoff of 1:20, it has a low PPV of 72%. Caution is advised in the interpretation of low titers among patients with atypical phenotypes, because ordering MOG-IgG1 in low pretest probability situations will increase the proportion of false-positive results.Question What is the positive predictive value of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG)-IgG1 testing in a clinical setting?Findings Of 1260 consecutive patients tested for MOG-IgG1 at the Mayo Clinic over 2 years, 92 (7.3%) were positive, 26 (28%) of whom had their results independently designated as false positive by 2 neurologists. The positive predictive value was 72% and varied with autoantibody titer (>= 1:1000, 100%; 1:100, 82%; 1:20-40, 51%) and clinical-magnetic resonance imaging phenotypes at testing (pretest probability: high, 85%; low, 12%).Meaning False-positive MOG-IgG1 results are encountered in clinical practice; caution is advised before assigning a MOG-IgG1-associated disorder diagnosis in patients with low-titer positive results and atypical phenotypes.