Spatial And Temporal Patterns Of Mortality Among Motorcyclists In A State Of The Brazilian Northeast In The 21st Century

The scope of this work was to analyze the trend and distribution of mortality among motorcyclists in traffic accidents in the State of Alagoas. It involved an ecological study relating to all deaths resulting from motorcycle accidents in the state in the period from 2001 to 2015. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (MIS). Mortality rates were calculated and stratified by gender. The joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis and the Annual Percentage Variation (APV) was calculated with a significance rate of 5%. For the spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian modeling and Moran statistics and spatial scanning statistics were applied. There were 1,458 deaths of motorcyclists in the period studied, 91.3% of which were men. Three temporal behaviors were observed in this population group: growth (20012005), stationary pattern (2005-2013) and decline from 2013 onwards. The highest rates were observed in the 'agreste' and 'sertao' regions of the state of Alagoas. Five spatial clusters were revealed with relation to general and male mortality, all located in the 'agreste' and 'sertao' hinterlands of Alagoas. The modeling showed a reduction of mortality from 2013 onwards and the spatial analysis revealed that the problem is more acute in the interior of the state.