Selecting the Right Crops for Cropping Pattern Optimization Based on Social Choice and Fallback Bargaining Methods Considering Stakeholders’ Views

Selection of a cropping pattern that is suitable for available water resources in each region is one of the important strategies for tackling drought and increasing water productivity. So far, many studies have been conducted to optimize cropping patterns, but their prime focus has been on optimizing the cultivation area of each crop. However, considering stakeholders’ interests and criteria in the region causes an increase in the acceptability and implementation of the modeling results. Crop selection that conforms to regional stakeholders’ criteria for cropping pattern optimization is a parameter that has been less considered in the past. The present study proposes a methodology based on four multi-criteria decision-making models including AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE and ELECTRE combined with Borda count, MVR, Condorcet social methods as well as fallback bargaining method in order to select proper crops for cropping pattern optimization. The suggested methodology was used in irrigation and drainage network of Doroudzan Dam in Fars province, Iran, under normal, wet and arid climatic conditions. The results showed, based on the three decision-making methods, wheat has been introduced as the first priority of the farmers in the study area in most of the regions and under different climatic conditions. Applying the fallback bargaining method to reach an agreement and considering the depth of the calculated agreement for each management region under each of the climatic conditions, the results obtained by the fallback bargaining method often maximize the negotiators’ satisfaction.