MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Nino

This study applies the energetic framework developed to quantify the interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to El Nino forecasting. The MJO wind power, measured by the covariability of MJO-related wind stress and oceanic Kelvin wave activity, is combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and two new indices are proposed. The MJO-Kelvin wave-ENSO (MaKE) index is proposed as an ENSO predictor and is shown to slightly outperform Nino 3.4 when applied to observational data sets and to greatly outperform Nino 3.4 when applied to CFSv2 reforecasts of the years 1980-2014. The MJO-Kelvin wave Influence (MaKI) index is proposed to predict MJO influence on developing El Nino events. This index performs reasonably well when applied to observations. The forecast skill of MaKI in the CFSv2 reforecasts suggests that this model does not predict the observed MJO-ENSO relationship as measured by this index. Key Points MJO-ENSO relationship can be used to forecast El Nino events MJO-ENSO relationship can be used to diagnose model deficiencies in simulating the air sea interactions MaKE and MaKI indices are useful El Nino predictors