Record-Breaking Meiyu Rainfall Around The Yangtze River In 2020 Regulated By The Subseasonal Phase Transition Of The North Atlantic Oscillation

In 2020, the Yangtze River (YR) suffered a long-persisting Meiyu season. The accumulated rainfall broke its record since 1961 and caused severe flooding and death in China. Our results show the sequential warm and cold Meiyu front regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was responsible for this unexpected extreme Meiyu event. From 11 to 25 June with the positive NAO, the interaction between the South Asian High (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high maintained a warm front to strengthen the rainband north of the YR. Afterward, the coupling between SAH and midlatitude Mongolian Cyclone induced a cold front, which retreated the rainband to the south of YR from 30 June to 13 July with the negative NAO. Although the ECMWF S2S model successfully predicted the warm-front-related Meiyu rainband, it failed to forecast the Meiyu rainband in the cold-front period, suggesting a great challenge of S2S forecasting on Meiyu rainfall.