Modelación matemática del efecto de la presión atmosférica sobre la densidad poblacional de los mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) en Villa Clara, Cuba

Introduction : Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are considered one of the most versatile organisms in the world as they can breed in any pool of water, such as puddles or tanks. However, their reproduction is influenced by atmospheric variables that allow predicting their population density. Objective: To assess the impact of atmospheric pressure on mosquito population density in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba, by means of a mathematical model based on a regressive objective regression (ROR) methodology.   Materials and methods: The development of the mathematical model to predict breeding sites was based on the number of breeding sites reported in the Villa Clara province between 2000 and 2017, and on the ROR model. Furthermore, a regression analysis was carried out using the IBM SPSS® version 19.0, which allowed obtaining models that explained 100% of the variance, with its corresponding standard error. Results: With respect to the number of breeding sites, an increasing trend was observed in the municipality of Cifuentes, while the trend was downward in Ranchuelo and Caibarien. The municipalities of Santa Clara and Encrucijada had the highest and lowest standard deviation (13.432 vs. 5.968), respectively, which demonstrates great variability among the data of each municipality. Conclusions: There is a close relationship between atmospheric pressure and mosquito population density, since as atmospheric pressure increases, both total and specific larval densities increase.