Forecasting Thunderstorms in Bangladesh: A Time Series Modeling Approach

A time-series modeling tool SARIMA (4,0,4)(1,1,1) [12] model has been implemented to project the total number of monthly thunderstorm-days at 34 different meteorological stations in Bangladesh. Efforts have been made to determine, as accurate as possible, the future number of thunderstorm-days up to five years. Detailed modeling procedure and forecasting accuracy are demonstrated. Due to the recent unusual rise in the number of deaths from lightning in Bangladesh, this research will be useful for policymakers to take the necessary precautions.