Response of surface runoff to land use and land cover change and its impact on Daihai Lake shrinkage in Inner Mongolia, China

Daihai Lake (DL), the third largest inland lake in Inner Mongolia, has shrunk severely given the conditions of no significant decrease in annual precipitation. On the basis of field surveys and Landsat remote sensing images, this study analyzed land use and land cover (LULC) changes in six periods of the DL watershed area during 1986–2019. Then, with the combination of the LULC results and the Soil Conservation Service–Curve Number method, we discussed the change characteristics and influence factors of the surface runoff in the watershed and the reason for DL shrinkage. From 1986 to 2019, the water area of DL decreased rapidly at a rate of −2.22 km 2 /year, and the area of farmland and grassland in the watershed changed strongly along the opposite trend. The surface runoff in the DL watershed was reduced by approximately 513.6 million m 3 during the last 34 years. In addition to local rainfall, groundwater is also an important water supply to the lake and accounts for a greater proportion. The average recharge rate of groundwater to the lake is approximately 64.55 million m 3 per year in the past 34 years. The area change of the DL is related to the runoff reduction, huge evaporation, and lake water use in thermoelectric power generation. The local precipitation cannot enter the groundwater in DLW. Large-scale exploitation of external groundwater for agricultural irrigation and industrial production is another important cause of lake degradation.