Prioritization of water erosion–prone sub-watersheds using three ensemble methods in Qareaghaj catchment, southern Iran

Water-induced erosion poses severe harm to the sustainable development of land and water resources that is essential for attaining agricultural sustainability in Qareaghaj catchment of Fars Province, Iran. This study evaluates the topo-hydrological, morphometric, climatic, and environmental characteristics of Qareaghaj catchment for prioritizing the sub-watersheds that are susceptible to erosion caused by water. We tested and compared a novel ensemble multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, namely the weighted aggregated sum product assessment-analytical hierarchy process (WASPAS-AHP) with prevailing benchmark ensemble MCDM models including VlseKriterijumska optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR)-AHP and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)-AHP for ranking sub-watersheds and determining the most significant parameter that influences water erosion (WE) in Qareaghaj catchment. The outcome of weights using pairwise comparison matrix (PCM) of AHP reveals that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), mean annual rainfall (MAR), slope degree (SD), and slope length and steepness factor (LS) governs the WE in Qareaghaj catchment. The prioritization rankings of sub-watersheds obtained using the VIKOR-AHP, TOPSIS-AHP, and WASPAS-AHP models demonstrate that SW31, SW63, and SW94 had the highest priority rank with a score of 0.047, 0.69, and 0.477, respectively. The comparison of rankings from the models using Spearman’s correlation coefficient tests (SCCT) and Kendall’s tau correlation coefficient tests (KTCCT) revealed that WASPAS-AHP had a higher correlation with TOPSIS-AHP and VIKOR-AHP ensemble models. The outcome of MCDM models was validated based on the erosion potential method (EPM), which displayed that the VIKOR-AHP model was better for mapping the erosion susceptibility than TOPSIS-AHP and WASPAS-AHP models. Thus, the erosion susceptibility mapping based on the VIKOR-AHP ensemble model can be considered for developing new strategies and land use policies in order to control WE in Qareaghaj catchment.