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基于多模型的区域电能替代发展潜力研究

Huaijian Xia,Haiying Lin, Wen Zhang,Shuo Yang,Wei Guo,Bo Miao,Qichu Chen

Science and Technology Management Research（2018）

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Abstract
为挖掘区域电能替代潜力,以区域生产总值、人口数量、煤炭等能源消耗量等作为潜力评价指标,构建区域电能替代潜力模型,对区域电能替代潜力进行排名分析;建立区域多情景电能替代潜力分析模型,通过GM灰色预测与神经网络组合模型对能源消耗量进行预测,实现多种情景下电能替代潜力预测分析.以河北省为例,对下辖各市区电能替代潜力进行排名,并对河北省多情景下电能替代潜力电量进行预测,最后根据预测结果,提出促进电能替代发展的建议.
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Key words
alternative energy,principal component analysis,scenario analysis,potential prediction
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