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基于改进CREAM方法的海洋平台火灾爆炸风险评估

Yanfu WANG,Biao LI,Jing WANG,Peina YAN

China Offshore Platform（2018）

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Abstract
基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM),针对海洋平台的特点,对共同绩效条件(Common Performance Condition,CPC)进行调整.用层次分析法确定每个评价水平的权重,实现CPC因子不同评价水平对事故的影响程度区分.利用模糊数学和贝叶斯网络解决CREAM模型任务环境和控制模式离散化问题,对其概率预测方法进行改进.以某平台为例,用改进后的CREAM方法,预测该平台人的失误概率.
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Key words
offshore platform,fire and explosion,human and organizational error,Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM),human error probabilities,Bayesian network
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