基于Logistic回归的大采深厚煤层冲击地压预警

Industry and Mine Automation(2017)

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Abstract
针对大采深厚煤层冲击地压监测预警难题,分别建立了基于常规指标(支护阻力、钻孔应力和瓦斯浓度)及常规指标(支护阻力、钻孔应力和瓦斯浓度)与地球物理指标(微震平均震源距、微震日能量、微震日频次、电磁辐射强度)综合的Logistic回归冲击地压预警模型,得到了冲击地压危险性(发生概率)与监测指标之间的定量表达式,并结合千秋煤矿现场实测数据对冲击地压预警模型进行验证.研究结果表明,基于综合指标Logistic回归的冲击地压预警模型预测准确率达89.2%,其拟合优度和预测准确率均优于基于常规指标Logistic回归的冲击地压预警模型.
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Key words
coal mining,thick coal seam in deep mining,rock burst,monitoring and early-warning,logistic regressio
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