Double or Nothing: Impacts of Warming on Crop Quantity, Quality, and Revenue

Using a unique data set from the multistate Peanut Variety and Quality Evaluation (PVQE) program, we quantify the economic impact of projected warming on revenue of Virginia-type peanuts, for which grade and kernel size are important determinants of price. In contrast to studies for other crops, the impacts of warmer temperatures on yield and quality are symmetric and negative, resulting in acutely depressed farm revenues. Our model predicts a roughly 11% decline in revenue under warming of 1 degrees C. Gains in yield and quality from breeding could offset revenue losses under moderate warming up to 1 degrees C but are unlikely to sustain farm revenues under more extreme changes in temperature.