A sensitivity analysis of numerical predictions for beryllium erosion and migration in ITER

The present study addresses the uncertainties that affect the recently performed predictions of beryllium (Be) erosion and migration in ITER using the Monte-Carlo code ERO2.0. The focus of the study is a D–T baseline discharge with fusion power gain Q=10, scrape-off layer (SOL) input power PSOL=100MW, toroidal plasma current Ip=15MA, and central toroidal field Bt=5.3T. The parameter studies used to investigate uncertainties include variations of the radial extrapolation of plasma parameters in the far-SOL (scan A), the assumptions on impact angle distributions (scan B) and the anomalous transport of eroded Be (scan C). Variations by factors ∼3, ∼18 and ∼2 for scans A, B and C, respectively, are found.