Chitinase-3-like protein 1 is an independent risk factor for the early failure of forearm autologous arteriovenous fistulas in uremic patients

Chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1) has been introduced as a marker of inflammation in different diseases, which can promote cell proliferation and differentiation. It has also been demonstrated that elevated serum CHI3L1 concentration can independently predict all-cause mortality in uremic patients. However, the impact of CHI3L1 on the early failure of autologous arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) in uremic patients remains unknown. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 109 uremic patients (mean age 53.2 +/- 14.7 years, 67.9% males), who received forearm AVF surgery, and were consecutively enrolled with a median follow-up time of 15 months. The early failure was defined as a fistula that never developed adequately for dialysis or that failed within the first 3 months of use. Serum CHI3L1 concentration was determined by the ELISA method. Among 109 uremic patients, 24 patients had AVF failure. The optimal cutoff value based on the receiver operating characteristics analysis of CHI3L1 was 122.6 ng/mL, with the area under the curve of 0.73 (P = 0.001). The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with CHI3L1 < 122.6 ng/mL had better AVF patency than patients with CHI3L1 >= 122.6 ng/mL (Log-rank test, P = 0.001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that baseline CHI3L1 level (>= 122.6 ng/mL vs. < 122.6 ng/mL) was significantly associated with AVF failure after adjustment for confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 3.67; 95% CI, 1.44-9.36). The study demonstrated that Increased baseline serum level of CHI3L1 is independently associated with higher risk of the early failure of forearm AVFs.