Rates of Mainland Marsh Migration into Uplands and Seaward Edge Erosion are Explained by Geomorphic Type of Salt Marsh in Virginia Coastal Lagoons

Complexities of terrestrial boundaries with salt marshes in coastal lagoons affect salt marsh exposure to waves and sediments creating different potentials for marsh migration inland and seaward-edge erosion, and consequently, for marsh persistence. Between 2002 and 2017, migration and edge erosion were measured in three mainland geomorphic marsh types (headland, valley, hammock) and were used to assess the rate and spatial extent of marsh change for a Virginia coastal lagoon system. Treelines, shorelines, and marsh perimeters were delineated in ArcGIS at 1:600 resolution. All marsh types increased in spatial extent; increases were greatest for the valley type (0.58 ha ± 0.31 ha or + 0.32% per annum). Measured rates of migration (headland > valley > hammock) and erosion (headland > hammock > valley) for each geomorphic type were averaged and applied to obtain changes in these same marsh types at the regional scale. At this scale, valley marsh area increased (82.5 ha or 5.5 ha a −1 ) more than the other two marsh types combined. This analysis demonstrates the critical influence that geomorphic type has on lateral marsh responses to sea-level rise and that efforts to conserve or restore salt marshes are most likely to be successful when focused on valley marshes.