[Analysis of early death factors and prognosis of acute promyelocytic leukemia].

Objective: To summarize the clinical characteristics of an early death in patients with de novo acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) , analyze the risk factors and direct causes of early death, and perform survival analysis. Methods: The clinical data of 368 patients with de novo APL in three centers (First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow Guangci Hospital, and Soochow Hopes Hospital of Hematology) during January 2011-December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The clinical characteristics of patients who suffered hemorrhagic early death and non-hemorrhagic early death were compared. The risk factors for early death, survival, and prognosis of patients with APL were analyzed. Results: Among the 368 de novo APL patients, 31 died early with an early mortality rate of 8.4%. The median time from diagnosis to death was 7 (0-29) d. On comparison of the clinical characteristics of patients with early death and non-early death and subsequent multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, it was observed that age ≥50 years and WBC ≥10×10(9)/L were independent risk factors for early death (P<0.01) . A total of 27 (87.1%) of the 31 early deaths was directly attributed to hemorrhage as the immediate cause of early death. Hemorrhage was the only cause of death in patients <50 years old and the major cause of death in patients ≥50 years old. A comparison of the clinical characteristics of patients with hemorrhagic early death and patients with non-hemorrhagic early death suggested that the median age and indirect bilirubin concentration of patients with hemorrhagic early death were lower than those with non-hemorrhagic early death (P<0.05) . The median follow-up time for all patients was 41.0 (0.3-101.4) months. The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate was (93.5±1.3) %, and the 5-year OS rate was (91.0±1.5) %. The 2-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was (98.8±0.6) %, and the 5-year DFS rate was (97.1±0.9) %. The 2-year OS rate of patients ≥50 years old and patients <50 years old was 79.3% vs 94.2%, P=0.000; the 2-year DFS rate was 92.3% vs 98.1%, P=0.023. The respective 2-year OS rates of high-risk and non-high-risk patients were 77.3% and 96.7% (P=0.000) and the respective 2-year DFS rates were 94.0% and 98.4% (P=0.139) . Conclusion: Age and WBC are independent prognostic factors for early death. We observed a difference in early mortality between high-risk and low-risk APL, but no difference in DFS rate.