Confidence in risky value-based choice

Risk engenders a phenomenologically distinct experience from certainty, often driving people to behave in ostensibly irrational ways, and with potential consequences for our subjective sense of confidence in having made the best choice. While previous work on decision confidence has largely focused on ambiguous perceptual decisions or value-based choices under certainty, it is unclear how subjective confidence reports are formed during risky value-based choice (i.e. those with uncertain outcomes). Accordingly, we sought to examine the effect of risky (versus certain) choice upon confidence ratings in a calibrated economic choice task and explore the well-documented interrelationships between confidence and subjective value (SV) as well as choice response time (RT) in the context of value-based choice. By jointly analyzing choices (risky versus certain), SV of the chosen option, confidence, and RT, we found a systematic effect of risk on subjective confidence: subjective confidence reports were significantly higher when selecting a certain prospect compared with a risky one. Interestingly, risk attenuated the strength of the relationships between confidence and both RTs and difference in subjective value (ΔSV), as well as the relationship between RT and ΔSV. Taken together, these results corroborate how choice, RT, confidence and SV relate in value-based choice under risk, informing both theories of confidence and risk preferences.