Examining The Relationship Between Elections And Wildfires

This paper examines the relationship between local elections and wildfire. Using data of wildfires in Greek municipalities between 2000 and 2010, I estimate models comparing wildfire outcomes in local election years against non-election years. I find that wildfire occurrence and burned area are systematically lower in the years around local elections. In municipalities where incumbents run for re-election, the decrease in wildfire occurrence is smaller in the years leading to elections, and larger in the years following local elections. There is some limited evidence that the likelihood of re-election influences wildfire outcomes around the time of local elections. The results suggest a relationship can exist between politics at the local level, wildfire occurrence and burned area. As political and economic considerations can be important in driving wildfire outcomes, assessing wildfire risk cannot take place separately from the prevailing political, economic and institutional environment.