Prediction Of Exacerbation In One-Year Follow-Up Of Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Introduction: Exacerbations are an important event in the course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Early identification and appropriate treatment of exacerbations are essential to shorten recovery time, improving quality of life, reduce the risk of hospitalization and death (O’Reilly JF. et al. Defining COPD exacerbations: impact on estimation of incidence and burden in primary care. Prim Care Respir J 2006; 15: 346–53). Aims and Objectives: Identifying risk factors for exacerbation during the one-year follow-up of COPD patients, and revealing whether the created model gives a good prediction of exacerbation in outpatient for the reference period. Methods: The study included 200 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD. Patients were followed for one year, evaluated the number of exacerbations. Basic demographic data were recorded, a pulmonary function test was performed, hemoglobin oxygen saturation and pulse were determined, a six-minute test was performed, COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and modified Medical Research Council scale (mMRC) questionnaires were completed. Results: With statistical data processing there were identified independent predictors of exacerbations (age > 65 years, CAT > 9, mMRC >2, oxygen saturation ≤ 93%). Of these independent factors was created a model for the prediction of exacerbation during the one-year mark of COPD patients. Internal validation showed good predictive value of model. Conclusions: This study revealed that there are simple, commonly used predictors that can identify with high accuracy those COPD patients who are at increased risk of exacerbation in the next year.