Analysis And Probabilistic Simulation Of Listeria Monocytogenes Inactivation In Cooked Beef During Unsteady Heating

This study was aimed at predicting the inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked beef during unsteady heating. A one-step approach was firstly applied to determine the thermodynamic coefficient of the beef sample. Then, inactivation kinetics was estimated by constructing the empirical heat transfer model and the log-linear dynamic inactivation model. Validations showed that the integrated model could accurately describe L monocytogenes dynamic inactivation under unsteady heating conditions. With the bootstrap and Monte Carlo approach, the stochastic inactivation of L. monocytogenes could be further simulated by considering the model uncertainty and strain variability. A higher uncertainty of the time for 4 log CFU g(-1) reduction presented when the endpoint temperature was relatively lower. The present study might provide a practical way to predict the bacterial dynamic and stochastic inactivation for further probabilistic risk assessment.