Exploring the possibilities of remote yield estimation using crop water requirements for area yield index insurance in a data-scarce dryland

The need for accurate and meaningful agricultural data as the means of making vibrant policies and informed decisions, is an increasing concern for policymakers in developing countries such as Ethiopia, where such information is usually scarce. In Ethiopia, the impacts of climate change on crop yields are rarely available at the lowest administrative levels such as wards/villages, for the benefits of the grassroots' populace. Thus, this research sought to evaluate the use of crop water requirements in the estimation of crops' yield. Food and Agriculture Organization's CROPWAT 8.0 application was used to pre-determine the possibility, preceding the use of crop yield estimation model (CROWRAYEM). Both CROPWAT 8.0 and CROWRAYEM had high coefficients of determination when tested with a survey data of barley and sorghum farmers' yield for the 2015 to 2018 cropping seasons in semi-arid southern Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Furthermore, the infusion of the crop yield into a recently published area yield index insurance payout structure increases the functionality of the proposed yield estimated model (CROWRAYEM).