An Accelerated Simulation Assessment Approach for Mission Success Probability of Multi-State Phased Mission Systems

The mission success probability assessment of multi-state phased mission systems (MS-PMS) under complex mission were studied. A general simulation framework of the system under complex mission based on discrete event simulation is established. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate the sample of random events, and accelerated sampling methods such as forced transitions and failure biasing are added to improve the sampling efficiency of small probability events, and the sampling statistics are modified to ensure the unbiasedness of the estimates. Taking the warship navigation mission as an example, it is found that the accelerated sampling method can effectively improve the sampling probability of small probability events in the mission regardless of the mission time. The main reason for the failure of the mission can be found by this simulation method, which can provide a basis for improving the success probability of the mission.