Severity of summer drought as predictor for smolt recruitment in migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta)

The recruitment of anadromous brown trout smolt from a small Baltic stream, frequently exposed to summer drought, was quantified for 9 years, and the effect from drought on smolt number and age composition analysed. Drought was quantified by, (a) a newly developed index quantifying the severity of summer drought (Drought Severity Index-DSI-based on amount of precipitation, monthly mean temperature and number of hours with sun), and (b) the amount of precipitation. Both DSI and precipitation were measured 1 or 2 years prior to emigration. We found highly significant (negative) relations between DSI (1 year before emigration) and both the total number of smolt, and the number of age 1 smolt. In addition, precipitation was (positively) related to total number of smolt, but DSI proved to be a stronger predictor compared to precipitation. In addition to drought, our results support a negative influence from older parr on the survival of age 0 trout. Our results indicate that recruitment of brown trout smolt from streams, regularly affected by summer drought, may be predicted approx. 6 months before the actual emigration the following spring. This offers an opportunity for managers to adapt protective measures in accordance with local and temporal changes in recruitment.