Analysis of COVID-19 indicators in the Northeast region of Brazil in the four first months of the pandemic

Introduction: The novel coronavirus or SARS-CoV-2 came up in the end of 2019 in China and quickly spread, resulting in a global outbreak. The COVID-19 (name given to the disease caused by the virus) pandemic was declared by WHO in March and surpassed the mark of one million cases and fifty thousand deaths in Brazil after four months since the first case was confirmed. Objective: The paper aimed to analyze the evolution of COVID-19 indicators in the Brazilian Northeast and correlate it to the social distancing levels in each northeastern state. Method: It is a traversal study with data collected from epidemiological panels of the Health Ministry of Brazil and the University of Sao Paulo about cases and deaths numbers and from the geolocation's company Inloco that calculated the social distancing levels. The analyzed variables were incidence rate, mortality rate, lethality coefficient and social distancing index. Results: The indicators are interdependent and there is certain correlation between the social distancing levels and incidence and mortality rates - they were weak or moderate. Conclusions: Differences between northeastern states, mainly social ones, reflect in their indicators and in the pandemic impact in each of them. It is a challenge proposed for health gestors.