Estimation of the transport factor of the phosphorus index in climatology and climate change scenarios in Jalisco, Mexico

The phosphorus index (PI) is a planning tool for identifying agricultural or livestock fields with the potential to contribute phosphorus to water bodies and distinguish those nutrient management practices that favor this process. The transport factor of the PI (PITF) implicitly includes non-controllable elements of the environment, such as rainfall, which contributes to agriculture uncertainty, and it is favored by the current climate change process. In Mexico, few studies have considered the PITF; therefore, the objective of this work was to apply the calculation methodology for the PITF and identify those areas that are vulnerable to the loss of phosphorus from land to water bodies in two climate change scenarios and three climates of Jalisco. The PI model of Gburek was applied in two representative routes of concentration of greenhouse gases (CPR): 4.5 and 8.5, with climatologies for 2030, 2050 and 2070, and for 2010 as baseline. The PITF was calculated using ARCGIS and the IDRISI GIS. The results showed levels of vulnerability to the loss of phosphorus ranging from very low to high at the baseline, while in RCP4.5 the PITF was rated very low to medium, and in the RCP8.5, very low to high. An element that stood out in the PITF was the high vulnerability of the plots located near a drainage network or water body.