Thermal ecology and extinction risk due to climate change of Gonatodes concinnatus (Squamata: Sphaerodactylidae), an endemic lizard from western Amazonia

Climate change (CC) could cause the extinction of 20% of the lizard species in the world by the year 2080. However, extinction risk is variable among species and it depends on the physiological requirements of individuals and the geographic distribution of populations. In this study, we evaluated thermal ecological aspects of a population of the diurnal gecko Gonatodes concinnatus, that inhabits in the western region of the Amazon Rainforest, and projected its potential distribution at present and his extinction risk by the year 2050 and by 2070 through a mechanistic and correlative model. We found out that G. concinnatus had a body temperature (T-b) of 26.8 degrees C (+/- 2.5), a selected body temperature (T-sel) of 24.6 degrees C (+/- 1.6) and a tendency towards thermoconformism. The probability of extinction for G. concinnatus is 84.2% by 2050 and 86.4% by 2070. Additionally, we estimated that at lower elevations, populations will have higher extinction probabilities due to CC. We consider G. concinnatus as highly sensitive to CC and we highlight the importance of having information on the thermal physiology of tropical ectotherms to implement appropriate conservation strategies.