A comparison of ocean model data and satellite observations of features affecting the growth of the North Equatorial Counter Current during the strong 1997-1998 El Nino

Descriptions of the ocean's role in the El Nino usually focus on equatorial Kelvin waves and the ability of such waves to change the mean thermocline depth and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, starting from a study of the transport of water with temperatures greater than 28 degrees C, sufficient to trigger deep atmospheric convection, Webb (2018) found that, during the strong El Ninos of 1983-1984 and 1997-1998, advection by the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) had a much greater impact on sea surface temperatures than processes occurring near the Equator. Webb's analysis, which supports the scheme proposed by Wyrtki (1973, 1974), made use of archived data from a high-resolution ocean model. Previously the model had been checked in a preliminary comparison against SST observations in the equatorial Pacific, but, given the contentious nature of the new analysis, the model's behaviour in key areas needs to be checked further against observations. In this paper this is done for the 1987-1988 El Nino, making use of satellite observations of SST and sea level. SST is used to check the movement of warm water near the Equator and at the latitudes of the NECC. Sea level is used to check the model results at the Equator and at 6 degrees N in the North Equatorial Trough. Sea level differences between these latitudes affect the transport of the NECC, the increased transport at the start of each strong El Nino being associated with a drop in sea level at 6 degrees N in the western Pacific. Later rises in sea level at the Equator increase the transport of the NECC in mid-ocean. The variability of sea level at 6 degrees N is also used to compare the strength of tropical instability waves in the model and in the observations. The model showed that in a normal year these act to dilute the temperature in the core of the NECC. However their strength declined during the development of the strong El Ninos, allowing the NECC to carry warm water much further than normal across the Pacific. The results of this paper should not be taken as providing proof of the hypotheses of Wyrtki (1973, 1974) or Webb (2018) but instead as a failure of a targeted study, using satellite observations, to disprove the hypotheses.