Potential health benefits of sustained air quality improvements in New York City: A simulation based on air pollution levels during the COVID-19 shutdown

New York City (NYC) experienced a sharp decline in air pollution during the COVID-19 shutdown period (March 15, 2020 to May 15, 2020)-albeit at high social and economic costs. It provided a unique opportunity to simulate a scenario in which the city-wide air quality improvement during the shutdown were sustained over the five-year period, 2021 through 2025, allowing us to estimate the potential public health benefits to children and adults and their associated economic benefits. We focused on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and modeled potential future health benefits to children and adults. The analysis considered outcomes in children that have not generally been accounted for in clean air benefits assessments, including preterm birth, term low birthweight, infant mortality, child asthma incidence, child asthma hospital admissions and emergency department visits, autism spectrum disorder, as well as adult mortality. We estimated a city-wide 23% improvement in PM2.5 levels during the COVID-19 shutdown months compared to the average level for those months in 2015-2018 (the business as usual period). Based on the data for 2020, we extrapolated the ambient levels of PM2.5 for the following five-year period. The estimated cumulative benefits for 2021-2025 included thousands of avoided cases of illness and death, with associated economic benefits from $31.8 billion to $77 billion. This "natural experiment," tragic though the cause, has provided a hypothetical clean air scenario that can be considered aspirational-one that could be achieved through transportation, climate, and environmental policies that support robust economic recovery with similarly reduced emissions.