Occupational Aspirations in the Context of Regional Occupational Structures

Young people develop their occupational plans and expectations by interacting with significant others in the social contexts in which they operate. Within given institutional opportunity structures, regional labour markets are important socio-spatial contexts that determine the development of occupational aspirations beyond the immediate environment of the family, schools or neighbourhoods. In our article, we examine the relevance of the regional occupational structure, that is, the presence of different occupations in the regional labour market for the occupational choices of non-college-bound young people in Germany. Our results are based on data from Starting Cohort 4 of the National Educational Panel Study, which we supplement with regional occupational indicators based on administrative statistics from the Federal Employment Agency. Applying conditional logistic regression models, we show that young people's occupational aspirations at the end of their schooling are oriented towards the occupations of the working population in their region: the higher the proportion of an occupation in the regional occupational structure, the more likely it is that young people aspire to this occupation. This relationship is not moderated by the occupational prestige or gender composition of the occupation. As our contribution highlights, occupational choices-and thus the unequal long-term working and living conditions associated with these choices-are to a certain extent randomly determined by the place of residence in adolescence.