Comparisons of Future Changes and Uncertainties of Typhoon Intensity and Storm Surge Between Super Typhoons Haiyan (2013) and Melor (2009)

To compare the future changes and their uncertainties of typhoon intensity and storm surge between Super Typhoons Haiyan (2013) and Melor (2009) due to the differences of global warming scenarios (SRESs) and general circulation models (GCMs), two kinds of ensemble pseudo-global warming experiments are conducted using a high-resolution typhoon model and a storm surge model. In the case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013), the future changes of the ensemble-averaged minimum central pressures are relatively small in both SRESs and GCMs. The uncertainty (standard deviation) of peak intensities in GCMs is greater than that in SRESs. In the case of Typhoon Melor (2009), the peak and landfalling intensities averaged tend to be intensified in both SRESs and GCMs. Because of its future intensification, the future storm surge at Mikawa Bay, Japan, is also likely to be enhanced. It is concluded that the uncertainty of typhoon intensity change of the well-mature typhoon is greater than that of the landfalling typhoon, owing to stronger vertical wind shear of a mid-latitude westerly jet.