Evaluation of the Danger of Landslides Caused by Rains by Using Cellular Automata

The mass movements are characterized as events of potentially disastrous character, mainly in tropical and mountain zones, becoming necessary to create new and more efficient methodologies to enhance understanding of the risk related to these phenomena. In this sense, this research has the objective to simulate the role of rain in the stability of slopes as triggering agent of mass movements, as well as to obtain the path of the debris-flows generated by the landslides. The methodology used is based on a physically-based model of slope stability, suitably modified in its original approach to include a probabilistic approach. The obtained scenery of threat is used as input for a computational routine based on the theory of the cellular automata, considering morphological aspects of the studied region. This tool is then used for predicting the trajectory of debris flows generated by landslides. It is concluded that the use of cellular automata is a powerful tool capable of forecast the paths of the debris-flows in such a way that it may be used in advanced research on risk quantitative assessment for rainfall triggered landslides.