Long-term trends and drivers of larval phenology and abundance of dominant brachyuran crabs in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada)

Climate change has led to major shifts in the timing of biological events, with many studies demonstrating earlier phenology in response to warming. However, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larvae in marine species. Phenological shifts can result in mismatches between consumers and prey and hence affect growth and survival of individuals, and ultimately population demography. We investigated the temporal changes in phenology and abundance of the larvae of dominant brachyuran crabs in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (eastern Canada) based on plankton collections spanning 1982-2012. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has warmed since the early 1990s, and our analyses revealed that larvae of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and toad crabs (Hyas spp.) exhibited a significant trend towards earlier phenology over the 30-year study period. This shift in phenology appeared to be a consequence of the effect of climate warming on both the timing of hatching and larval development rate. Larval abundance responded differently by crab taxon to climate warming, likely due to differences in thermal tolerance. The warming trend was unfavourable to snow crab, which is the most cold-adapted and stenothermic of the taxa examined in this study. The abundance of snow crab larvae was lower when sea ice retreat occurred earlier than day 110 of the year and sea surface temperature was higher than 8.5 degrees C. On the other hand, larval abundance of rock crab (Cancer irroratus), which prefers higher temperatures, was positively related to surface temperature.