Experience of neuronet diagnosis and prediction of peptic ulcer disease by results of risk factors' analysis

Aim. To develop and verify a method for diagnosis of peptic ulcer based on neural network analysis of data on patients' risk factors. Materials and methods. This article presents the results of a study based on materials on risk factors of 488 patients. The data was analyzed using internally developed artificial neural network (Certificate of State Registration of Program for Computers (RU) no. 2017613090). The results of the study. The proposed approach demonstrated the levels of sensitivity of 74.4%, m = 4.3 and specificity of 93.3%, m = 2.46 during clinical testing. The prediction of the age of probable hospitalization ensured the generation of an array of data for which the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the prognosis was 1.8 years, m = 0.11 in the training set and 1.9 years, m = 0.15 in the clinical testing set. The maximum of absolute prognosis error in the clinical testing set did not exceed 2.2 at p = 0.95 and 2.3 years at p = 0.99. Conclusion. A new method is proposed for diagnosis of peptic ulcer based on a neural network analysis of data on patients' risk factors. During clinical testing of the model, this approach demonstrated Area Under the Curve (AUC) levels reaching 0.943. The use of the artificial neural network also made it possible to predict the age of probable hospitalization. The use of the neural network demonstrated additional advantages including: non-invasiveness, the lack of need to prepare the patient for the study and the possibility to obtain results immediately after the onset of the disease without a time delay for sample processing.