Epidemiological evaluation of different FMD control strategies in two selected regions in Austria

In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises.