Prediction of the Relative Free Energies of Drug Polymorphs Above Zero Kelvin

Crystal structure prediction (CSP) calculations can reduce risk and improve efficiency during drug development. Traditionally, CSP calculations use lattice energies computed through density functional theory. While this approach is often successful in predicting the low energy structures, it neglects the crucial role of thermal effects on polymorph stabilities. In the present study, we develop a robust and efficient protocol for predicting the relative stability of polymorphs at different temperatures. The protocol is executed on a highly parallel cloud computing infrastructure to produce results at time scales useful for drug development timelines. We demonstrate this protocol on molecule XXIII from the sixth crystal structure prediction blind test. Our results predict that Form D is the most stable experimentally observed polymorph at ambient temperature and Form C is the most stable at low temperature consistent with experiments also conducted in the present study.