The Record 2017 Flood in South Asia: State of Prediction and Performance of a Data-Driven Requisitely Simple Forecast Model

•Explain why the August 2017 floods in South Asia emerged differently than past major floods.•Show why the prediction of a 200-year flood from a leading forecasting agency did not materialize.•Satellite measurements were useful to capture rainfall intensity and spatial coverage.•A data-driven model provides reasonably accurate forecasts of 2017 floods in Bangladesh.