Changes in the radial growth of Picea crassifolia and its driving factors in the mid-western Qilian Mountains, Northwest China since 1851 C.E

Examining the growth of trees in response to environmental factors is essential for evaluating the stability of forest ecosystems. In this study, using tree ring data obtained from 18 sites and climate diagnostic methods. we investigated relationships between the radial growth of Picea crassifolia in the mid-western Qilian Mountains and local climate/sea surface temperatures (SSTs) since 1851 C.E. The results revealed that the radial growth of P. crassifolia showed significant upward trends during three time periods (1884-1906, 1929-1946, and 1964-1983) and significant downward trends in a further three periods (1907-1928, 1947-1963, and 1984-1995). Variations in the growth of P. crassifolia showed a significant negative correlation with temperature in June and a positive correlation with precipitation from July in the previous year to June in the current year as a response to climate change. We also found that large-scale anomalies could influence the radial growth of P. crassifolia, which was reflected in results showing that extremely high radial growth is related to El Nino patterns in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas extremely low growth is related to anomalously warmer SSTs in the southern Indian Ocean. Notably, we found that the extremely low growth of P. crassifolia in response to SST was more stable than that of extremely high growth. Furthermore, on the basis of qualitative methodology, we established that years characterized by extremely high/low growth were largely/little influenced by the time window and threshold values that were selected when determining the positive/negative pointer years. Our results confirm the validity of using the relationships between extremely low growth and SSTs to predict forest dynamics.