Base Reproduction Number of COVID 19: Statistic Analysis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has grown up to be a pandemic within a short span of time. The quantification of COVID-19 transmissibility is desired for purposes of assessing the potential for a place to start an outbreak and the extent of transmission in the absence of control measures. It is well known that the transmissibility can be measured by reproduction number. For this reason, the large amount of research focuses on the estimations of reproduction number of COVID-19. However, these previous results are controversial and even misleading. To alleviate this problem, Liu et al advised to use averaging technique. Unfortunately, the fluctuant consequence principally arises from data error or model limitations rather than stochastic noise, where the averaging technique doesn’t work well. The most likely estimation in USA and Wuhan is about 8.21 and 7.9. However, no enough evidence demonstrates the transmissibility increase of infectious agent of COVID-19 throughout the world. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement 1)National social science foundation of China (16BXW005); 2)Chongqing Basic Science and Frontier Research Project, China (No. cstc2017jcyjAX0007, cstc2017jcyjAX0386); 3)Project Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Education Committee, China (Grant No. 17SKG050). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes No