Spatial distribution of Covid-19, a modeling approach: case of Algeria

Abstract The objectives of this study are to modeling the spatial distribution of Covid-19 at the regional scale (Case of Algeria) based on geostatistcal study of covid-19 cases spatial distribution and Hybrid Kriging. The data analysis of a published officially Covid-19 reports by the Algerian Ministry of Health. a map of contamination by covid-19 has been obtained and a new model of risk evaluation has been developed and proposed to predict the propagation of this pandemic in Algeria. To conclude this work show areas with high population density are most exposed to virus propagation and death arising. Simulation show that infection by Covid-19 will arise to 14 000 cases in Algeria in the last of April also the velocity of transmission of this virus is rapid. Map obtained help the local authority to manage Covid-19 infections at the spatial scale.