Temporal analysis of the clinical evolution of confirmed cases of COVID 19 in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul Brazil

The objective was to analyze the evolution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the first four months of the pandemic in Mato Grosso do Sul, a state in the Center-West region of Brazil, as well as the factors related to the prevalence of deaths. This was an observational study with a cross-sectional and time series design based on data from the information system of the State Department of Health of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The microdata from the epidemiological bulletin is open and in the public domain; consultation was carried out from March to July 2020. The incidences were stratified per 100,000 inhabitants. The cross-section study was conducted to describe COVID-19 cases, and the trend analysis was performed using polynomial regression models for time series, with R-Studio software and a significance level of 5%. There was a predominance of women among the cases, and of men in terms of deaths. The presence of comorbidities was statistically related to mortality, particularly lung disease and diabetes, and the mean age of the deaths was 67.7 years. Even though the macro-region of the state capital, Campo Grande, had a higher number of cases, the most fatalities were in the macro-region of Corumbá. The trend curve demonstrated discreet growth in the incidence of cases between epidemiological weeks 11 and 19, with a significant increase in week 20 throughout the state. The trend for COVID-19 in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul was upward and regular, but there was an important and alarming exponential increase. The health authorities should adopt the necessary measures to enforce health precautions and encourage social distancing of the population so that health services will be able to care for those afflicted by the disease, especially older people, those with comorbidities, and vulnerable sectors of the population. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was financed in part by the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul Foundation UFMS/MEC and the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) Finance Code 001. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Not applicable All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data highlighted in the manuscript are available in an open database and contained in the text and tables