Probabilistic Shoreline Change Modeling Using Monte Carlo Method

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantify uncertainties of shoreline changes (accretion and erosion) by using Monte Carlo simulations. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and shoreline changes induced by random waves from offshore. A probability density function is developed to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair weather and extreme weather conditions. It produces time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). This will generate uncertainties in prediction of annual maximum shoreline erosions in different return periods (years). The developed Monte Carlo Model for GenCade can be used to assess reliability and uncertainty of prediction in shoreline changes in natural coasts.