The relative contributions of infectious and mitotic spread to HTLV-1 persistence.

Human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) persists within hosts via infectious spread (de novoinfection) and mitotic spread (infected cell proliferation), creating a population structure of multiple clones (infected cell populations with identical genomic proviral integration sites). The relative contributions of infectious and mitotic spread to HTLV-1 persistence are unknown, and will determine the efficacy of different approaches to treatment. The prevailing view is that infectious spread is negligible in HTLV-1 persistence beyond early infection. However, in light of recent high-throughput data on the abundance of HTLV-1 clones, and recent estimates of HTLV-1 clonal diversity that are substantially higher than previously thought (typically between 10(4)and 10(5)HTLV-1(+)T cell clones in the body of an asymptomatic carrier or patient with HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis), ongoing infectious spread during chronic infection remains possible. We estimate the ratio of infectious to mitotic spread using a hybrid model of deterministic and stochastic processes, fitted to previously published HTLV-1 clonal diversity estimates. We investigate the robustness of our estimates using three alternative estimators. We find that, contrary to previous belief, infectious spread persists during chronic infection, even after HTLV-1 proviral load has reached its set point, and we estimate that between 100 and 200 new HTLV-1 clones are created and killed every day. We find broad agreement between all estimators. The risk of HTLV-1-associated malignancy and inflammatory disease is strongly correlated with proviral load, which in turn is correlated with the number of HTLV-1-infected clones, which are created by de novo infection. Our results therefore imply that suppression of de novo infection may reduce the risk of malignant transformation. Author summary There is no effective antiretroviral treatment for infection with Human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1), which causes a range of inflammatory diseases and the aggressive malignancy Adult T-cell Leukaemia/Lymphoma (ATL) in approximately 10% of infected people. Within hosts the virus spreads via infectious spread (de novoinfection) and mitotic spread (infected cell division). The relative contributions of each mechanism are unknown, and have major implications for drug development and clinical management of infection. We estimate the ratio of infectious to mitotic spread during the infection's chronic phase using three methods. Each method indicates infectious spread at low but persistent levels after proviral load has reached set point, contrary to the prevailing view that infectious spread features in early infection only. Risk of disease in HTLV-1 infection is known to increase with proviral load, via mutations accrued from repeated infected cell division. Our analyses suggest that ongoing infectious spread may provide an additional mechanism whereby chronic infection becomes malignant. Further, because antiretroviral drugs against Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) inhibit HTLV-1 infectious spread, they may reduce the risk of HTLV-1 malignancy.