Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador

Objectives: Evaluate the relevance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive case detection policy or model implemented by the Ministry of Public Health (MPH) of Ecuador and to compare it with the experiences of other countries. Methods: Data contained the daily reports publicized by the MPH. The formulations were carried out under the Conditioned Probability modality applying Bayes' Theorem. All the COVID-19 tests applied in relation to the confirmed cases per million inhabitants were considered to obtain their level of positivity, and compared with the experience of Iceland and South Korea. Results: The probability of detecting positive cases of COVID-19 in Ecuador was higher than Iceland and South Korea, because the diagnostic tests were aimed at symptomatic patients, without identifying asymptomatic or mild symptomatic, who play an important role in the transmission of the disease. In addition, many symptomatic patients were examined but will remain undiagnosed due to the unavailability of tests and the low quality of many of them. Conclusions: The daily reports on the behavior of the COVID-19 issued by the Ecuadorian government do not adequately represent the growth in the number of those infected each day, nor the actual behavior of the epidemic, affecting possible control measures.